Forecasting the electrical vehicle market

There is currently much talk about electrical vehicles and I have been thinking for some time about how this may impact future energy demand. I was then interested to see this article forecasting the impact of electrical vehicle sales on the car market.

Some interesting points:

  • There are currently around 1.2 billion vehicles on the road today and Navigant Research estimates this will grow to around 2 billion by 2035
  • In 2015, the global vehicle pool consumed 42% of the world’s 93 mmbd crude oil consumption. This implies if there is no major change in vehicle efficiency or usage then oil consumption for vehicle use alone will be approximately 66 mmbd in 2035.
  • Major oil companies are predicting slow growth rates in EVs
  • Currently EV sales are a negligible percentage of total vehicle sales globally, however, EV sales growth is currently running at approximately 50%.
  • In a high growth scenario EVs could represent 55% of the global vehicle pool by 2040 although a moderate growth rate scenario suggests that EVs may still only be 20% of the global vehicle pool by 2040.

What is not considered is the impact of autonomous vehicles and companies such as Uber on driving patterns and vehicle demand. This is obviously a lot more difficult to forecast.

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